This is achieved via reviews of the performance of forecasting in several fields,
a set of 24 case studies, and discussing some threats to forecasting accuracy and
an opportunity to improve accuracy.
In the field of economic forecasting, accuracy is not improving but the situation
in which accuracy is likely to be worst has been identified. Economic forecasting
methodology has a recurrent flaw which could easily be corrected.
In the field of weather and climate forecasting, accuracy has improved but there
are limits. Furthermore, times have been identified when accuracy is worst.
In the field of political forecasting, accuracy had improved but is now worsening.
The costs of forecasting errors are high and the benefits of improving accuracy are
valuable, in financial terms and also to safety and quality of life.
This book provides information to improve forecasting accuracy.