Future Tool Kit

The Sentinel Tree

Photos by Charlie Nelson and Mack Ross

Forecasting books

Leading indicators for consumer spending in Australia

WEF reports

A world of peaks

Prophets Profit - articles about the future

 

 

The objective of Future Toolkit is to improve the quality of decisions about the future.

Developed by Charlie Nelson.

Economic forecasting with the Wisdom of the Masses

Provides compelling evidence that conventional economic forecasting does not predict turning points, but that surveys of the general public can be analysed to predict turning points and to predict levels accurately.  Based on Australian data, demonstrates leading indicators for household consumption expenditure, real GDP, house prices, the household saving ratio, and changing interest rate sensitivity.  Published November 2016.

Forecasting: the essential skills
A book aimed at improving forecasting accuracy.

The book is about forecasting skills in two senses:

· Forecasting skill is a measure of the extent to which forecasts are more accurate than those produced by naive methods such as trend extrapolation.  The book aims to improve skill in this sense.

· There is a range of skills needed by the individual or the team making forecasts and the book identifies theses skills through evaluation of forecasting performance in several fields and through case studies.  The skills span a wide range including  knowledge, experience, and ways of thinking.