Future Tool Kit

The Sentinel Tree

Photos by Charlie Nelson and Mack Ross

Forecasting books

Leading indicators for consumer spending in Australia

WEF reports

A world of peaks

Prophets Profit - articles about the future

 

 

The objective of Future Toolkit is to improve the quality of decisions about the future.

Developed by Charlie Nelson.

Forecasting: the essential skills
A book aimed at improving forecasting accuracy and which identifies a set of essential skills needed to maximise accuracy.

This is achieved via reviews of the performance of forecasting in several fields, a set of 24 case studies, and discussing some threats to forecasting accuracy and an opportunity to improve accuracy.

In the field of economic forecasting, accuracy is not improving but the situation in which accuracy is likely to be worst has been identified.  Economic forecasting methodology has a recurrent flaw which could easily be corrected.

In the field of weather and climate forecasting, accuracy has improved but there are limits.  Furthermore, times have been identified when accuracy is worst.

In the field of political forecasting, accuracy had improved but is now worsening.

The costs of forecasting errors are high and the benefits of improving accuracy are valuable, in financial terms and also to safety and quality of life.

This book provides information to improve forecasting accuracy.