First Draft, May 2001
Second Draft, June 2001
This is a scenario for Australia in 2015.
Scenarios are simply plausible futures – not forecasts.
They should be used as a basis for ensuring that strategic plans are
robust across a range of possible opportunities and threats.
The Australian Business Foundation (an independent private sector think
tank) recently produced a set of four scenarios for business in Australia to the
year 2015 (www.abfoundation.com.au).
My scenario warns of the danger of ignoring problems at home rather than looking at the impact on us of what happens globally. It does not ignore the potential global reactions and implications of our actions but it draws attention to the need to address problems that are largely of our own making.
This is the first draft of a scenario that will be developed further. Input is most welcome, please email me (firstname.lastname@example.org) with suggestions.
What Could we have Done?
The Way Forward
Signs to Watch
Diary of Driving Forces