Australia: The Unlucky Country

Charlie Nelson
First Draft, May 2001
Second Draft, June 2001

Introduction

This is a scenario for Australia in 2015.  Scenarios are simply plausible futures – not forecasts.  They should be used as a basis for ensuring that strategic plans are robust across a range of possible opportunities and threats.  The Australian Business Foundation (an independent private sector think tank) recently produced a set of four scenarios for business in Australia to the year 2015 (www.abfoundation.com.au).  These are: 

• First Global Nation describes a successful Australia which adapts with flair and flexibility to the globalisation of world business and the challenges of an online economy.
• Sound the Retreat sees a world in which geopolitical instability and cultural and social backlash override the benefits of globalisation.
• Brave Old World is a picture of Australia where our comfortable lifestyles, economic performance, adequate social security systems and laconic approach to the future conceal the need for strategic and concerted effort to make the transition to the global knowledge economy until it is too late.
• Green is Gold looks at how global agreements on environmental management imperatives play out in Australia for business and the community at large.

My scenario warns of the danger of ignoring problems at home rather than looking at the impact on us of what happens globally.  It does not ignore the potential global reactions and implications of our actions but it draws attention to the need to address problems that are largely of our own making.

This is the first draft of a scenario that will be developed further.  Input is most welcome, please email me (charlien@bigpond.com) with suggestions.

The Scenario

What Could we have Done?

The Way Forward

Signs to Watch

Diary of Driving Forces 

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